KPACE prediction

Results in

Cowboy Jamboree

Sep 26, 2026 · Greiner Family OSU Cross Country Course

How we did

We missed by 2.6% on average — about 36 seconds.

  • We didn't call the winner
  • We called the team winner
  • 3 of our 3 podium teams made the podium
  • 43% of runners finished within 2% of our time.
  • The field ran 1.9% faster than we predicted. Take that shared shift out and our average miss was 2.0%.
  • We predicted 128 of 176 finishers.
  • 129 of the 151 runners we listed started.
  • 5 of our top 10 finished top 10.

The field, predicted to finish

Each dot moves from our predicted time to the time they ran; the tail it leaves is our miss.

Every runner

Our call relative to their actual time • right is faster

PlaceRunnerFinish timeOur call and our miss
1 Oklahoma State 19:24 We predicted 59 seconds too slow ours 20:24 · 5th
2 Maureen Cherotich Oklahoma State No prediction 19:29
3 BYU 19:33 We predicted 16 seconds too fast ours 19:17 · 1st
4 New Mexico 19:51 We predicted 1 minute 26 seconds too slow ours 21:17 · 18th
5 BYU 19:57 We predicted 21 seconds too slow ours 20:18 · 4th
6 SMU 20:02 We predicted 1 minute 30 seconds too slow ours 21:32 · 23rd
7 Lexi Goff BYU No prediction 20:07
8 BYU 20:15 We predicted 26 seconds too slow ours 20:41 · 8th
9 BYU 20:16 We predicted 16 seconds too slow ours 20:32 · 7th
10 BYU 20:18 We predicted 31 seconds too slow ours 20:48 · 11th

Our misses and closest calls

Where we missed most

All 10 were large misses (5% or more off)

Closest calls

Teams

TeamOur callResultMove
BYU 1st · 26 1st · 32
Oklahoma State 3rd · 95 2nd · 64
New Mexico 2nd · 44 3rd · 70

How our prediction moved

3.0%2.8%2.6%19 h out8 h outFinal
VersionAverage missWhy it changed
19 h out 3.0% First prediction
8 h out 2.8% Prediction model improved
Final 2.6% Field changed