KPACE Prediction
Cowboy Jamboree
How we did
We missed by 2.6% on average — about 36 seconds.
- We didn't call the winner
- We called the team winner
- 3 of our 3 podium teams made the podium
- 43% of runners finished within 2% of our time.
- The field ran 1.9% faster than we predicted. Take that shared shift out and our average miss was 2.0%.
- We predicted 128 of 176 finishers.
- 129 of the 151 runners we listed started.
- 5 of our top 10 finished top 10.
The field, predicted to finish
Each dot moves from our predicted time to the time they ran; the tail it leaves is our miss.
Every runner
Our call relative to their actual time • right is faster
PlaceRunnerFinish timeOur call and our miss
1
Oklahoma State
19:24
We predicted 59 seconds too slow
ours 20:24 · 5th
2
Maureen Cherotich
Oklahoma State
19:29
3
BYU
19:33
We predicted 16 seconds too fast
ours 19:17 · 1st
4
New Mexico
19:51
We predicted 1 minute 26 seconds too slow
ours 21:17 · 18th
5
BYU
19:57
We predicted 21 seconds too slow
ours 20:18 · 4th
6
SMU
20:02
We predicted 1 minute 30 seconds too slow
ours 21:32 · 23rd
7
Lexi Goff
BYU
20:07
8
BYU
20:15
We predicted 26 seconds too slow
ours 20:41 · 8th
9
BYU
20:16
We predicted 16 seconds too slow
ours 20:32 · 7th
10
BYU
20:18
We predicted 31 seconds too slow
ours 20:48 · 11th
Our misses and closest calls
Where we missed most
All 10 were large misses (5% or more off)
Closest calls
Teams
| Team | Our call | Result | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
|
|
1st · 26 | 1st · 32 | |
|
|
3rd · 95 | 2nd · 64 | |
|
|
2nd · 44 | 3rd · 70 |
How our prediction moved
| Version | Average miss | Why it changed |
|---|---|---|
| 19 h out | 3.0% | First prediction |
| 8 h out | 2.8% | Prediction model improved |
| Final | 2.6% | Field changed |